In an article published on this site in November 2017, I wrote of our experience in our first month following the Flat Racing Master, a tipster offering his services via the Betting Gods website. This interim review observed that we had lost a total of £284.45 in that first month, but stressed that it was important to give the service more time before reaching conclusions as to its overall success. This article serves as a (slightly belated) update revealing the results of following the service during November and December 2017.
As outlined towards the end of that earlier article, November did not start well. Of the first fifteen tips sent by the service only one was successful. This saw us £215 down already by 11th of the month. So how did things go from there? Let’s find out….
The remainder of November was quite successful, it has to be said. From a position where we had been £499.45 down on the 13th of the month, we ended the month £399.45 down. This was, it should be outlined, largely courtesy of one very good day on the 29th, when two winners in Delilah Park and Desert Doctor romped home at 6 to 1 and 4 to 1 respectively. This brought £120 profit back into the coffers, albeit 4 other selections were to lose on that same day.
But, only five days before this, we had been almost £600 down and considering the possibility that our bank would not last till the end of the test period in December. Many ordinary punters would not be able to stomach these sorts of losses. It must also be stressed that, even with this better period between the middle and the end of November, we still ended the month down £115 overall. Therefore, November did not see us recoup any of the losses from October.
The losing only slowed somewhat and, even then, there were some hairy periods. Of 45 tips made by the Flat Racing Master in December 2017, 9 were ultimately successful, for a strike rate of 20%. This is some way below the 24.55% strike rate currently advertised on Betting Gods website for the tipster. Needless to say, there was also no return on the investment.
We headed into December 2017 hoping for some more success. Ultimately it was the most successful month of the trial, but we still made a small loss. Having started at £399.45 down, we ended the month £414.33 down on the three month period. The main reason for this slightly more successful month was that December saw some decent winners at long-ish odds emerge from the tips.
Most notable here were the wins of Bold Reason at Newcastle on 6 December, Mountain Bell at Newcastle on 16 December and Ocean of Love at Wolverhampton on 26 December. These horses netted £110, £66.67 and £82.50 profit respectively. The selection of Ocean of Love was particularly notable as the tipster had urged a larger than usual stake of 3 points (or £30), and this was one occasion where that paid off by resulting in more profit for his members.
However, the strike rate for the month still fell below the expected levels. There were 8 winners from 38 selections for a strike rate of 21.05% and it is most probably this which explains why, despite the successes outlined, all the profit from winners was wiped out.
So what are our conclusions following our three month period following the Flat Racing Master’s service?
In the last article, based on our first month’s experience, we argued that gamblers should not begin using tipsters in the belief that an immediate profit is guaranteed.
We did, in fairness, point out that tipsters themselves tend to stress that their stated profits come from an average and that players who needed to could stake smaller amounts. However, it is likely that gamblers want to make the headline amounts, i.e. larger profits, and that the prospect of some ‘certainty’ of doing attracts them to such services in the first place.
Nevertheless, as we remarked, a fair summation of any service demanded that time be given for things to turn around and so we continued the experiment in November and December 2017.
Ultimately, our experience suggests that one cannot guarantee that a bad month following a tipster will be followed by good months which recoup those losses. Our losing slowed in November and December, but did not go into reverse.
It may well be that another three months might have seen a winning streak which saw us in the black. But it is just as likely that it would not. Furthermore, many gamblers do not have infinite money to throw at both service fees and the gambling itself in the hope things turn round.
It is to be hoped that all gamblers consider what they are looking to get out of such services, as well as their ability to lose for any length of time before winning. A quick buck cannot be guaranteed but nor, it seems, is a return be certain over the medium term.
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